There are many different answers to this question.

In spite of their high feeling of patriotism and knowledge of the subject, the Americans estimate prospects of the United States to be rather ambiguous during coming decades.

Nowadays America’s found in zenith of the greatness. It’s quite naturally that it tries to use these unique opportunities to preserve and consolidate its global hegemony. Z. Bzhezinsky expressed that the final purpose of American policy should be kind and high quality: to create world community, being really ready for cooperation in accordance with long-term tendencies and fundamental interests of humanity. However, at the same time, it is a matter of vital importance to have no competitor being capable to dominate in Eurasia continent and, hence, to challenge America.

It’s difficult to tell what is greater in this: hypocrisy with incompatible things connected or diligent error that passes desirable thing off as real one. But we shall try to understand the put question honesty.

The most part of the World, perhaps, admits a global leadership of the USA, but it doesn’t mean that every country is ready to go in a waterway of the leader (though the Americans rely on it). For today, there are many countries that stay apart from American global system. It is quite possible to find neutral countries in relation to the USA and hostile ones, too, among which there are three Great Powers: China, Russia, India and many Muslim countries of the world.

American globalization policy aggression can course of questions and doubts of many separate countries which attempt to protect their own originality. They are frightened by the idea of messianic obsession of America in order to impose its life image to the whole world. The wreck of the two — polar world forces to ponder much.

The unordinary phenomena of the second half of the XX century which received definition of "the cold war", as it served the sharpest period of opposition of two global systems and supported balance of forces between them, shocked the whole world with the character of its end.

The end of "the cold war" has found its participants unawares, but rather winners than defeated ones. That defeatist "striptease" was so rapid that in result both the first and the second parties found themselves in the face of completely new reality without any policy thought over strategically.

In spite of that minor sounds of funeral marches in the East and fanfares in the West have not ceased yet, but blasphemous ideas began to attend some "winners" heads: whether it was a real victory for them and whether they strove for such results. Concerning this matter, Stanislav Lem expressed that it was terrible to tell but the existence of the Soviet Union had been some kind of a safety valve for the world. The main contradiction between the East and the West (or between the United States of America and the Soviet empire) paralyzed or brought to nothing all the others. And nowadays there are, probably, forty or fifty wars going on simultaneously, and they have no any reason to be explained by anybody… And nobody suspected that there was such huge amount of conflicts in the world while they were suppressed by confrontation between two Great Powers.

(S. Lemm, Moscow News, June 18 — 25, 1995, p. 11).

When the axis of confrontation "the West — the East" was broken, it was supposed that not only "the products" of disintegration but also all the states of the world would direct to the center, and the winner would only need to place them around on appropriate orbits of favor. But something opposite occurred: the new and the old ones began to strengthen their national borders, to search for new integration configurations, to revive historical claims and insults in their memory. When cementing force of external threat disappeared, numerous sprouts of conflict sources drowned before, crawled out instantly on light.

These features of destructive process are demonstrated more visible and transiently on the fragments of the Great Power defeated. However, these destructive tendencies are not less dangerous for the other party because of their imperceptibility and low speed. This process is quite predictable, in our opinion, because of that break-up of one pan of geopolitical scales can cause of symmetric breaks of another one — Atlantic NATO space. On this field the former consolidating external threat being disappeared, creates of unique conditions for realization of growing chances to put into practice some national ambitions (especially for such states as Germany and France).

If military potential is not taken into consideration (see table), European potential is quite comparable with American one. Having all the preconditions for independent active games on the world geopolitical stage, Europe should analyze its relations to America.

Burdened with rich historical memory and not so infected by mass culture, the Old World has been weighed down by subordination to the less "cultured" partner, keeping in mind own strategic aspirations, which are dangerous both for the world and for its national interests. As geologists would tell, a crack between Western Europe and the USA is well deep. It needs only some period of time for this crack to become visible not only for specialists who are able to monitor it now. But the fact of discussing this matter mainly by the Americans is not ordinary.

In this aspect, it’s possible to assume that Yugoslavian campaign of NATO was conceived as a multi — purpose task. Firstly, it’s the end of existence of Yugoslavia as independent and multinational state, which was strategically important for Europe, and emergence of small, weak and, consequently, dependent states on this territory. Secondly, there is a part of the world that is not consented to NATO methods (revival of consolidating idea of external threat for "internal usage"), discrediting of UN international law system. Thirdly, availability of European instability became "the beginning of the end" of Euro as the main dollar competitor. Having shown to the whole world the financial crisis in South — East Asia and Southern America, the facts of instability in Near East and in Europe, the USA wanted everybody to come to a necessary conclusion that American markets were stable.

Gram Fuller, the leading expert of Ronal Corporation, spread a false rumor in his interview to "Expert" magazine (May 31, 1999) during Yugoslavian campaign of NATO. Among other things, he declared that being the American, he could tell that the Balkans were the subjects to European initiatives only as a part of European projecting, the project of New Europe. Also he noticed that the United States weren’t the participant of that project. But according to his words, he didn’t mean, in general, the military NATO operation in Yugoslavia. That’s very interesting, isn’t that? It remains only to put a question: why the position of B.Clinton and T.Blair was the most unshakable and aggressive? Probably, protecting European democracy by "humanitarian methods", they especially "supported" Euro, winning from its fall in the exchange rate.

Speaking seriously, the USA have already carried out special actions to decrease of Euro quotations. Obviously, the states of European Union will undertake special actions against the USA too, in particular, against their agrarian sector.

The Balkan campaign was a war with the main purpose of rescue of dollar and American economy. NATO bombed not Yugoslavia only but European Union as a whole with its monetary system. This point of view has good explanation, namely: the fact of Euro denomination; on the same time, the states of European Union received thousand refugees with numerous political, economic an social problems; increasing budgetary deficit on account of that the states of European Union make significant borrowings from financial markets.

If in spite of such state of affaires, a possibility to define the Balkans as European project remains, then the question about responsibility of politicians is worth to be thought over. It’s more likely that Gram Fuller was deceitful expressing his point of view.

NATO shows without any hesitation its "teeth and muscles", equating itself with Security Council of UN and appropriating the right to interfere in affairs of sovereign states. The world "police truncheon" has already become quite visible in the arsenal of American model of the world.

John Sorrows, the known American financier, mentioned this matter in his article "Trap for the Great Power" (Moscow News, № 21, 1999, p.5). In the end of his small but rather emotional publication he said that the USA landed in their own trap. America had been one of the Great Powers in the world for a long time in the past. Nowadays it remains the only one and wants to be considered as a leader of a free world. But fundamental principles of open society were broken. Nobody has got a right to have the truth monopoly, but American policy is such as if it owns this right. For the sake of universal principles the USA is ready to break other states’ sovereignties, but they are against any infringements on their own sovereignty. They are ready to throw bombs on other states, but they don’t want to put their people at risk. They refuse to obey any international administrating. The USA was among seven states, which refused from participation in International Tribunal; others were China, Iraq, Israel, Libya, Qatar and Yemen. The USA doesn’t even pay their member’s dues to UN. Such a behavior does not give them any right to declare themselves as the leaders of a free world. J. Sorrows emphasize that America should change radically its attitude to the international cooperation to return that status, and it should not play the role of "the world policeman", cooperating with like — minded countries and obeying to the rules imposed by America on others.

Genry Kissindger pays attention to two very important features of the USA and NATO policy in his article "New global disorder" in "News Week" magazine. The first feature, as he considers, that NATO has transformed into an institution that is ready to impose its will by force, especially in the period when three former states of Warsaw Pact became members of the block. It has undermined numerous assurances of the USA and its allies that there is nothing dangerous in NATO expansion for Russia in accordance with defensive character of its statute. The second feature as he estimates is that unity of NATO seems to become more and more frail, and internal debates about future of the block and the role of the USA and Europe in it are inevitable.

In the light of that the main historical events have occurred before and are occurring now on Eurasian arena, the relations to Europe and other states — satellites become determining for the USA. It should be quite clear to the USA that it’s only the matter of time to let Europe and Japan out "on a long lead", but they don’t know how to do it and what consequences they should expect.

Natural unity of the USA and Western Europe has never been monolithic. As soon as "the cold war" and tension associated with it weakened, the separate parts of the monolith began to revive slowly. Then Europe focused on its own problems and on that vacuum which arose in East Europe.

Estimating mutual relations between the USA and Western Europe, first of all, it’s necessary to note that their economic conditions, if it’s possible to say so, are in contra — phase. The state of American economy for the last period of time has been estimating in accordance with its good results, namely: high rates of GDP, the low level of unemployment, deficit — free budget, strengthening of positions in technological priorities. At the same time, during these years a picture of the West has been painting with rather dark colors: economic growth is at the low level and rather close to stagnation; unemployment is at the high level and social protests are increasing.

On the other hand, there is one more distinction between the USA and Western Europe: that is a fundamental difference of their structural plans that determines the main features of their economic models. The state itself is not so considerably involved in economy of the USA in comparison with Europe. For the USA, it can be explained by lack of historical traditions and comparative isolation from struggling Europe, by absence of serious social obligations of the state before the society oriented on personal success in the first instance. Cultivated in such conditions large monopolies, which have not been burdened with obligations to the state and society, enter the international arena and turn out to be in a preferable position in comparison with their European competitors.

Cultural and historical traditions of Europe do not allow to accept American model. Western Europe as a native land of classical capitalism, all the bourgeois and proletarian revolutions has developed its own social balance, in which role of the state is as powerful as its role in economy.

Giving some benefits to the businessmen, social "easiness" of America will return in future as a boomerang, and this returning is already appreciable by negative social and cultural consequences. This misbalance is compensated to some extent by reverse correlation of expenses of considering parties to support military potential. The expenses for defense of the USA come to 4 % of GDP, France and England — 3,1 % each, Germany — 1,7 %.

It’s obvious that Western Europe has no any possibility to change its economic mechanisms because of objective reasons; and the USA, in turn, doesn’t want "to study" and use rich experience of Europe. These system differences will become deeper in the near future until the USA makes a step on "European rakes".

The important fact unseen at first glance, but working methodically for divergence of the USA and European policies, is the difference of scales of their geopolitical interests. America is interested in affairs of the whole world taking care of its own ambitions. "An Old Europe" is wiser and more modest. Its geopolitical interests are inside European continent.

Concerning these matters, it is enough to compare two institutions: from one side — NATO with the USA as a leader, from another side — European Union headed by Germany. First of all, these institutions don’t communicate with each other. Secondly, when there is not any threat from the East, the main role of NATO is to support American active participation in solving European problems in order to guaranty domination of the USA in this part of the world.

But it’s impossible to forget an importance of historical memory and, in some extent, of national humiliation. Three capitals, namely, London, Berlin and Paris have lost their rank of capitals of the Great Powers during the XX century. European integration and, particularly, creation of European Union became their revenge. France has already expressed its opinion: if "the cold war" is finished then there is nothing left for the USA mission in NATO, and the block should be transformed into European body only. Concerning this matter, France is quite confident in supporting from Belgium, Greece, Spain and Italy.

Thus, Europe is at the crossroads now: whether it should become, finally, independent in making decisions or it should depend on opinion of the USA. In turn, the adherence of NATO is not in fashion in America now, and the stage becomes free for its critics convinced of that Europe should go swimming alone. This dispute doesn’t concern the process itself, as it’s quite obvious, but the way of the USA participation. Whether America should counteract with the process or put back it, making an opponent instead of an ally, or should it coordinate own activity with Europe, helping the last as a new partner but not as a leader.

The state of uncertainty characterizes both Atlantic coasts. In this concern, from our point of view, the main problem of European Community is the absence of range of ideas as the basis of the main aim to be formulated. It explains inability to put forward the leader of integration process. The situation seems to be insoluble. Germany is afraid of its own memorable historic events in the eyes of Europe. Great Britain is very truthful in showing its Americanism, and it’s quite devoted to the USA as to " a prodigal son". And France has no capabilities and no support from small countries included in the union. Probably, the most suitable and effective way to settle this problem is organization of collective leadership as triumvirate.

If we take a good look at Europe, we can find out special features of integration process. These features may become the beginning of very important historical events in the next century. I mean voluntary, peaceful and equal in rights integration, when countries — the members of the union — are prestigious and neighboring ones want to join the union as its members. A new type of a force center is going away from the USA in order to become its competitor in future. To confirm seriousness of this tendency, we should keep in mind European Monetary Union and a new European currency — Euro. However, everyone remember so-called "banana conflict" between the USA and Europe. Then Europe attempted to change the regulation of banana import, and thus, it provoked the sharp reaction of B.Clinton who began threatening with severe economic sanctions.

This form of integration (that we considered above) is new in principal because it has a possibility to grow both extensively (by attracting new countries) and intensively (by improving institutions in frame of European Union and creating new ones). Such integration has good chances to be the beginning of a new empire in the first half of the next century, namely, the empire of New Europe.

M.Lind, the main editor of "New Republic" magazine, consider that the USA has about 10 — 20 years of predominating over the world, but nobody can guarantee such hegemony in future. Thus, it’s necessary to emphasize that in spite of pleasant talks about the USA as the only Great Power, nowadays it’s not enough for America to rely on itself only in order to dominate over the world. Taking into account both external and internal factors, it’s possible to say rather firmly that the USA has even not those 20 years as M.Lind considers. In our opinion, the most terrible opponent of the USA are the USA themselves only, although it sounds paradoxically.

It’s very difficult to find any supporters of this statement, but we suppose that having reached the certain fatal line, individualism is becoming the main cause of this destructive process. Individualism is forming two absolutely opposite forces with a strong capability of breaking the society off. From one hand, there is a centrifugal force oriented outside. It is egoism with noticeable features of haughtiness and Messianism. From another hand, there is a centripetal force oriented inside with features of isolationism and indifference to everything that doesn’t concern with personal interests.

The Americans is one of those nations, which are convinced that God has chosen them. This kind of collective egoism itself is unique and not dangerous until it combines with a power to be imposed on other people. It’s the very case when people are forced to be happy against their will. Nowadays it’s quite visible in the USA the combination of vast economic and military potential with ideas of "chosen people" and Messianism with the total world leadership. As real danger has disappeared but the awareness of superiority has remained it causes of the lower responsibility, the lower control over own actions, the absence of critical evaluation of the reality and the growth of own ambitions, as well as, it causes of the faith in own infallibility and appropriation to itself the right of a judge who makes a decision: who is guilty and how to punish them. As a result, there is obvious the conviction of the Americans that American style of life, American rules of economic and political games, American behavior in the area of international affairs and international building are the only truth and a present to the whole world from them, but everyone should remember to thank them for that.

But the largest part of the world doesn’t want to share an American point of view that is not liked much by the Americans themselves. When the Americans consider themselves to be "chosen people by God", from one hand, they don’t realize that there are about a hundred of various religious orientations in the USA. And from another hand, that the Americans have got so little part of their life left for belief, substituting it for personal success and pleasure. Global superiority on the basis of idea "of chosen people by God" has transformed in imperative of aggressive external policy and, therefore, it has caused of serious threat for safety of the whole world. There are very vivid and known examples for it, namely, the events in Vietnam, Iraq, the Balkans and the facts of ignoring UN and of NATO expansion.

The growing wave of isolationism conceals the latent charge of the Atlantic Union. But the process of isolationism, as we understand, has internal sources, especially, taking into account the leading ideology of "a consumption society": industry of pleasures, "culture of death", philosophy of success, secularization and loss of moral principles. In order to confirm that was told above, we give a number of examples, using mainly American sources.

B.Clinton in his annual dispatch to the Congress of the USA in 1999 said that there were too much old schools in America and they were so overcrowded that many pupils studied in trailers. He also said that a child should not receive a diploma after finishing school when he could not read it.

M. Zukerman, one of the cleverest Americans, the owner of "US News and World Report", listed in his editorial column with a title "Where Have All of Our Treasures Got to": the crime, abusing of drugs, collapse of families, decline in activity of academic community, public places disfigured by drug addicts and gangsters. Then he asked whether the Americans accepted now as a part of their life that they had considered before being disgusting?

According to the FBI information, 25 % of the girls before 12 years old put at risk to be raped. According to the data of the American organization "Women against pornography", 38 % girls achieved 13 years old enter their sexual life without own will, and 70 % of all the American girls were victims of attempts of violence. In August 1998, in the USA the boy of 8 years old was arrested because of violence. He’s the youngest criminal for all history of USA.

About 25 % of the American men are homosexuals. Annually about 200 thousand of homosexuals arrange processions in Los Angeles.

There are several examples of crime for 1998:

March 24. Four girls and their teacher were killed and two boys of 11 and 13 years old in Arkansas State wounded ten pupils.

April 24. A teacher was killed by his student of 14 years old at the school party in Pennsylvania State.

April 28. Two pupils were killed by a boy of 14 years old in California State.

May 19. A pupil of 18 years old, who was considered to be one of the best in his school, shot his classmate in the schoolyard.

May 21. Having head the news on murder committed by a teenager, America was shocked again. K.Kinkle of 15 years old, who had been expelled from his school for carrying firearms about with him, opened fire from an automatic rifle against his classmates. As a result, one pupil was killed and 23 pupils were wounded. K.Kinkle also killed his parents.

April 20, 1999. So-called "Mafia in greatcoats", a group of terrorists consisted of senior pupils, being at the school buffet, opened fire and threw several grenades. This bloody battle with 25 schoolboys killed and 20 ones wounded happened in the secondary school of Littleton, not far from Denver in Colorado State. Hiding on the top floor, one of the pupils phoned to policemen and told them what he had seen. Then a special division arrived and all the hostages were set free.

A "German wave" radio station quoted from the newspaper "Washington Post" from January 27, 1999: "The number of thrown children in the USA had increased from one and a half to three millions since 1986 to 1997 (on the whole, they’re children of abusers and drunkards)". Apart from that, the violence rapidly spreads in the USA. For example, the men killed in Washington, the capital of USA, are 17 times more in comparison with European capitals (by reckoning on 100 thousand people).

As one more evidence of internal psychological crisis of the Americans is the growth of number of suicides among veterans of Vietnamese war. During that war the USA had lost about 40 thousand servicemen. When it finally ended 120 thousand of its veterans committed suicide (although, there’re 196 special centers of rehabilitation financed by the state).

The war of different cultures is like corrosion for American society. Really, it turns out to be not so easy to reach a mutual understanding between representatives of various races and nationalities of the USA. This misunderstanding becomes a cause of mutual irritation. And the possibility of conflicts is quite real or even inevitable. In spite of formal equality and observance of "human rights", there are many examples of enmity between "white" and "black", "white" and "red skin", "white" and "yellow" and so on. There are 500 different organizations of extremists in the USA with such leading ideologies as Neo — Nazism, anti — Semitism and separatism (the separatists, fighting for independence of Texas, even planned to murder B.Clinton, the President of USA).

Using experience of the USA as an example, S.Hangtington shows the collision of civilizations. He notices the fact that America becomes more and more ethnically varied. According estimation of the Census Bureau, American society will have consisted of 23 % of Latin Americans, 16 % of Negroes and 10 % of Asians by 2050. Taking into account two fundamental principles of the state such as European culture and political democracy, it should be asked whether European culture will be dominating in future or its significance will be gradually decreasing? In respect of the second part of the question, the answer, as we assume, will be positive.

The increasing flows of information make a number of psychological problems for the Americans. They try to find their own, sometimes rather pathological, ways of protection. This fear leads people to isolation from a real life, to attempt living in the virtual world, to the life with drugs and alcohol, to different sects, schools, radical organizations, but many people consider that the best way of rescue is to commit suicide. So important social component disappears, but without it the fundamentals of the society won’t remain stable.

Among other things, there is the fact that should be taken into consideration. We mean economy of the USA, its successful development and also a possibility of negative changes in it. Primarily, American specialists are worried about this problem. For example, R.Preacher, the American stock exchange analyst, known in the world with the most accurate forecasts, expressed his apprehensions that the USA were on the verge of economic collapse and stock market crash.

W. Baffet, American multimillionaire, who is at the head of the investment corporation "Berkshire Hathaway", also holds this point of view, giving several factors for such a negative forecast. Firstly, American stock market has been unprecedented successful during last 15 years thanks to political stability, low level of bank interest rates and increasing yields of securities. Economic disruption is not far away, and there are several reasons for it:

• inflows in quantity of unprofessional with the only aim of making money as quickly as possible;
• emergence of Economic and Monetary Union and introduction of common European currency to outcompete American dollars from European market. If American dollars return home (taking into account that 70 % of the currency are outside of the USA and, except of this, these dollars are uncovered), American economy, so successful today, will collapse.

As American economist L. Cheney considers that the USA is bankrupt now because of a large amount of internal debt that has increased by 500 billion dollars during the last years of B. Clinton’s policy.

The facts taken into consideration are not comprehensive to illustrate the process in prospect. But it’s enough to lose optimism with regard to perspectives of the USA in future. It’s a thankless task to forecast this future, all the more so, it depends on conclusions that America should make, taking into account the contemporary history and the direction of its powerful potential.

The most dangerous future for America is a possibility to remain without society. It’s very important to remember that economic, financial and political crisis is not so difficult to overcome as a social and cultural crisis (regardless of its duration) with its disastrous consequences.

If the USA evaluate themselves and contemporary history with self — criticism and their rationality, realizing the main tendencies of the world development, they will be able to adjust their external and internal policy so that a possible future disaster will be replaced by some "illness" with a definite diagnosis and a possibility of cure.

In this respect, the delusions expressed by Z. Bzhezinsky are dangerous, particularly, when he is reasoning about descent of the USA from imperial Olympus as a usual evolutionary process of returning to the system of ruling relations. He shows reality in false light, paralyzing the will. These movements mean a real possibility to have a new balance of powers, new structures and new parameters.

THE ANALYSES OF BASIC CONSEQUENCES OF MILITARY CONFLICTS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCENARIOS AND MEANS FOR THEIR ELIMINATION

1. Antipersonnel mines are the most serious technological environmental consequences of military conflicts. Understanding of this is getting more importance in connection with wider use of mines in military conflicts and big losses among peaceful population. The following figures demonstrate this:

- by different assessments on the territory of 68 countries there are from 100 million to 150 million antipersonnel mines and this fact mostly concerns Afghanistan, Angola, Cambodia, Laos, Iraq, some districts of Yugoslavia (Bosnia, Herzegovina, Serbia) and recently some areas of Russia (Chechnya); [1,2]

- annually mostly in the districts of military conflicts from 2 to 5 million of such explosive devices are laid. At the same time demining operators neutralize not more than 100000 mines (1997).

Only on the territory of Bosnia and Herzegovina more than 3 million mines were laid [1, 2, 3].

- in the world one antipersonnel mine has got exploded every twenty two minutes in the result of which people, including civilians, lose their loves, become invalids [2,3].

Annually land mines murder and disable 26000 people, 90% of which are civilians.

That is why in the global scale the problem of the antipersonnel mines has become of special importance, especially in connection with massive nature of their application and with sharp rise of the number of victims among peaceful population.

Top level officials of the UNO estimate this situation as follows: "Out of all kinds of consequences left after the end of a conflict land mines are the most widely spread and harmful. They create the most dangerous and long-lasting type of local contamination with which we have ever met. At present we are losing in the battle for protection of the peaceful population against mine affection."

2. That is why the United Nations Organization (UNO) since the mid-1970s has undertaken great efforts in result of which:

- the Conference was convoked in September of 1979 in Geneva and in September of 1980 it’s Second Session took place where there were made drafts of three protocols, the second of which concerned mines and trap-mines. [4]

-on April, 10 the Convention for Prohibition or Limitation of Use of Particular Kinds of Weapon which can be considered capable to make excessive harm or having non-selective effective force ( Convention for non-humane weapon) was opened for signing and on December, 2 of 1983 it came into force , in accordance with the Second Protocol of which the use of mines and trap mines is forbidden or limited;[5].

- Protocol II for prohibition and limitation of mines, trap-mines and other explosive devices use, Article 9 of which stipulates international cooperation in mine fields, mines and trap-mines elimination after the end of active military operations. The sides also are trying to come to an agreement concerning exchange of information and technical assistance necessary for elimination of this weapon or its neutralization.

Initially 26 countries put their signatures under the Convention including Germany, Italy, Great Britain and the USA. [4]

After the Session, which took place in January, and the Meeting in May, the Conference on International Strategy which was held in October of 1996 in Ottawa the corrected Protocol II was signed by as many as 55 countries. It seems worth to mention the following amendments to the Protocol:

- all antipersonnel mines which are beyond detection are prohibited;

- a country which planted the land mines is responsible for their elimination;

- annual meetings for discussion of the protocol enforcement will be held every year and the next conference on this problem will be held not later than in 2001. [1]1

By the beginning of 2000 the Ottawa Convention for Prohibition of Antipersonnel Mines have been signed by 120 countries (true there have been no Russia, the USA and China among them) [2] Russia is being shown her interest in the method of a step by step progress where the first step is seen as the prohibition of any export, besides Russia supports any negotiations on the present problem within the Conference for Disarmament. [1]

Under the European Federation for Non-destructive Testing the Working group for detection of antipersonnel mines (WG-5-APLD) exists which deals with humanitarian demining.

3. At the mentioned above sizes of mined territories and rates of antipersonnel mines neutralization the clearance of European areas as well of the whole planet will claim a lot of time. Besides the expenses for neutralization of one antipersonnel mine are up to $1000. Therefore the task of contemporary demining means development which allow to increase efficiency and make the process of demining cheaper has become very urgent, the more so as possibilities of the Antimining Center, the Fund under the UNO, and the EC for financing works of demining operators are limited.

Therefore our project proposes that all the interested countries and their specialists jointly perform the following for execution of Article 9 of the Protocol II:

A. To develop scenarios for demining including such questions as:

- sequence and priority;

- technology of demining including as the most important a package of the best technical means of demining from those which are under production and those which are in the state of operative development (completion).

B. Selection of the best technical means on the particular basis:

- which are under production,

- in the state of operative development.

At the same time criteria of expenses on demining decreasing and safety questions must be considered the most important. The Russian side is ready to introduce a survey of methods and technical means for antipersonnel mine detection applicable to the task of the humanitarian demining which it has.. [6, 7]

Let us dwell on some questions:

Using the decamouflaging features of antipersonnel mines a large number of methods to detect them is realized.

Presently the following methods have found a wide utility in the domestic elaborations: electromagnetic (inductive, radiowave, magnetometric, non-linear); nuclear-physical, thermolocation and mechanical (mechanical probing). They were these methods that make it possible to create field means for detection of mines and explosive devices, which are adequate for the humanitarian demining.

Our analysis of advantages and disadvantages of every method with consideration of requirements for the humanitarian demining efficiency increase including work efficiency during dark hours allows us to offer:

-two models of mine detectors: the analogue model STERH-7230 and the model with a microprocessor STERH MASTER 7231. This models have searching and functional capabilities which are not worse the metal detector GARRET-CX III (USA) has but Russian models are 2 and 2,5 times cheaper what is quite essential if we take into consideration that the UNO and EC have very limited funds as well considering a large volume of works connected with the humanitarian demining.

Russian mine detectors are based upon the inductive harmonic method and have the following features:

- the built in automatic fine adjustment system of the threshold detecting allowing to exclude the effect of the ground;

- tone change of sound indication depending on metal type;

- visual presentation of information on the object on a display (on the LED display in the analogue instrument and on the graphic liquid-crystal display in the microprocessor instrument);

- two channel mine detector in the detecting element of which there are two detective channels: radio wave and magnetometric.

The first channel is responding to the contrast in dielectric permeability between an explosive agent (E=2...3) of a mine and the ground (E=4...20). The second responds even to the smallest ferromagnetic elements in a mine structure (a firing pin, a spring and others). Mine detecting happens only when both channels come into action simultaneously (it is realized by the logic of the mine detector processing block). Existence of two channels allowed decreasing by an order of magnitude the number of false responses. Only this minedetector provided detection of the most dangerous non-metal mines (Italian) of TS series in the Afghan War.

- for remote detection of mine fields thermolocation with visualisation on display of defined anomalies forms is used.

At the moment of placing of any object into the covering medium its structure is damaged, first of all it relates to density, even if the most sophisticated camouflage has been used. Differences occur in the rate of thermal radiation along the camouflaging layer of the covering medium situated above the object of detection and the rest natural background.

Offered thermovisors of TH-3 and TH-4 types can be applied from any mobile carrier including helicopters.

We are ready to present mentioned specimens for joint tests, results of which will permit to adopt a joint solution about partial additional development or about establishing mass quantity production of these specimens and supplying of international demining detachments with this equipment. Russia has got enough productive capacity for that.

As this takes place we are looking forward to get necessary resources for carrying out mentioned works from our colleges.

4. The further severest consequence of military conflicts is in our view contamination of territories (or water areas) with oil and petroleum products as a result of mass air strokes destroying oil storage tanks, oil refineries and pipelines. The last year we have seen such situation in Yugoslavia as the result of NATO operations, which had led to the heavy ecological consequences. Immensity of this consequence is confirmed by the fact that annual world expenses for soil clean up from oil and petroleum products and restorations of lands (according to the UNO data) make tens of billions of dollars.

Russian side offers a plant for cleaning ground from oil and petroleum products.

Description of the installation

The principle of the installation operation is based on application of intensive vibrocavitational extraction of contaminants containing oil and petroleum products with further division of a pulp into the clean sand and extracted oil (petroleum products). Different substances such as water, oil, and hydrocarbons can be used as extractants. In case of work on the seaside salty seawater can be utilized.

A developed extractor with high efficiency and productivity is used in the design of the installation as well as an original block for further separation of ground from oil and petroleum products.

The installation has got a modular construction. Types of the modules and their quantity depend on the kind of contamination. Dimensions of one installation module are: width-2, 5 m; length- 6-10 m; weight-from 8 to 10 t.

Water consumption is not more than 200 kg for 1 t of initial ground, power consumption-70 kWh .

The method of extraction is such that it provides ground-cleaning rate not less than 95% in case of 3 modules’ use and 99% when the installation has 6 modules and high operating efficiency at the compactness of the equipment. This ecological method is nonwaste and ecologically clean. It is possible to design a mobile cleaning installation that permits to use it in the process of elimination of accidents’ consequences. In particular at oil fields and oil pipelines.

An important advantage of this method is the fact that petroleum products extracted from ground can be used again for instance as fuel. In comparison with foreign technologies ("Alfa Laval" Sweden; "KHD", "Flottweg", Germany; "Bogart Environmental Services", USA) the suggested method provides 3-4 time decreases of operational expenses and 10-time decrease of capital costs.

The development stage

The technology of cleaning with different extractants is worked out.

The method is patented in the Russian Federation (Patent n 2051165).

At the International Exhibition "Evrica 94"(Brussels) this installation was reworded with a diploma and a silver medal.

Proposals for cooperation

After the Technical Assignment has been agreed with a customer and funds (an advance payment) has been transferred:

- when the cleaning rate is not less than 95%, 3 blocks of installation can be produced in 3-4 months after beginning of the financing. The installation cost is approximately $250 thousands.

- when the cleaning rate is not less than 99%, 6 blocks of the installation can be produced in 6-8 months after beginning of the financing. The installation cost is approximately $ 500 thousands.

The operating efficiency of the installation is 10 t of ground per hour.

There is a possibility to create:

- installations with operating efficiency of 5 and 20 t of ground per hour;

- stationary installations, mobile installations on automobiles, installations transported on container carrying trucks.

5. Realization of proposals made by the Russian side concerning the development of scenarios for humanitarian demeaning, technical means and technologies will provide an assistance in quicker, more efficient and cheaper elimination of two heaviest technological environmental consequences of military conflicts.

References

1. Year-book of SIPRI, 1997, the Stockholm International Institute for Study of World Problems. Section VI, 1998; Section 13U, 1999,

2. "Izvestiya" dated February 23,2000, p.4.

3. "Izvestiya" dated December 2, 1998, p. 1.

4. "Voprosy razoruzheniya", n 71, pp.5-7, 10-12, 15-16, UN, 1989.

5. "Voprosy razoruzheniya", n 64, pp. 40-41, UN, 1989.

6. "Security of Russia. Legal, social, economic, scientific and technical aspects. Ecological diagnostics". Publishing house "Znanie", "Mashinostroenie", pp. 405-414 ( Military ecological diagnostics).

7. "Special’naya tekhnika", n 4, 2000. Article by Kovalev A.B. and Shcherbakov G.N.

8. Shamshev K. N., Kulakov I. I. "The Non-polluting way of clearing ground from petroleum", "Conversion in mechanical engineering", №2, 1995.

Basis of problems: new conditions of existence, models of development and available resources generate a limit referred to as a critical point of human evolution. On the process of its action a path of development can be chosen.

1. The limit of possibilities of modern technologies and problems of optimal technological structures.
2. The limit of inconsistency and completeness. Revolution in mathematics.
3. The limit of the aggravation of ecological situation and the problem of a new ecological balance.
4. The crisis of seven existing forms of public consciousness (world outlook, science, art, morality, law, polics, faith) and the necessity of new paradigms.
5. The limits of the tendency of growth power production and consumption. The problem of a new power balance.
6. The limits of controllability of development of mental and physical appearances of an individual as well as, his intelligence. The problem of the coexistence of an individual and as cyberman.
7. The limit of development or "Fr. Drake’s formula for society". Paradoxes of solutions.

1. The tendency of formalization of knowledge.

The research of the future, the research of the tendencies of human development, evolution of technologies, evolution of thinking and consciousness require new approaches, new methods and new scientific paradigm. The industrial and information revolution made it urgent to research the future on the basis of fast originating problems and inconsistencies, technological requirements and target solutions. Such requirements to modern science determine the possibility of accelerated calculations and the choice of an optimal direction of development in the field of society management, information and industrial technologies.

Such requirements mean the development of the short-term and current prognosis as a basis for a decision positively influencing the development of researched area or negatively influencing originating dangerous problems.

Besides traditional methods such as problem of target, statistical, global, based on experts inquiry, based on cycles, mathematical models etc. the development of the prognosis requires of working models, in scenario their intellectual analysis and consequent target solutions.

The statement of the problem in virtual mediums conjugates with the problem of formalization of knowledge. On other words formalisation is rather pragmatic than mathematical field of knowledge though the knowledge is investigated by mathematical methods. And today, in addition to mathematics other scientific disciplines continue to search harmonic components of society and nature and their formalized analogies.

Simulation models and the systems of today are the necessary not only or scientific research. Such systems are necessary especially in industrial technologies and economic systems for detection of arising problems. It can serve as an sample that: even in an orb of services the control systems of a hotel business today can not raise the level of profitability without the simulation of activity. And the simulation cannot be managed without the formalization of initial objects and conceptual means.

Jo solve the problem of formalization and start of the researching problem of the future in a medium cloze to current vital processes, the paradigm of critical points of evolution is offered.

For researching the offered paradigm of prognosis development based on the trends of evolutions critical points and optimal choice of perspectives the method of defining the instantaneous prognosis using the analysis of new conditions of existence, models of development and being available resources is fixed.

The research confirming the paradigm of critical points used as a basis statistical, analytical and experts materials in the field of society research, information technologies, calculus, etc. The materials of Russian Futures Studies Academy were used.

 

The research also was determined by the following performances:

1. The philosophical substantiation of the existence of the evolutions critical points and the use of the given substantiation as a working hypothesis.

2. The method of calculating in three directions of development.

3. The definition of the existence of the evolutions critical points in various spheres of human activity.

4. The collecting materials, analysis, prognosis development, verification of working hypothesis.

The purpose of the research is to qualitatively optimise of the development of prognosis. To create a basic modern method of the choice of the best variant of development as an algorithm for in formation technology. To justify the necessity of activation of scientific research by simulation methods.

The conclusions obtained have proved to be paradoxical:

1. The best direction of society development contains the elements contradicting moral standards norms and categories.

2. The basis of modern society management is formed by information philosophy, which successfully compete with religions.

3. The future cataclysms are inevitable because of limited cultural and national mentalities. The prognosis: the world crisis of 2020-2025 is inevitable.

4. The disruption of management balance in ecology, power and mental appearance of an individual puts forward the problem of coexistence of an individual and new intellectual technologies.

The prognosis: after 2005 the revolution in mathematics will be followed by the global scientific revolution.

2. The hypothesis of the critical points of evolution.

To formalize philosophical categories and furthermore, natural or social objects is rather complicated. The separation of categories into objects alive lifeless, subjective and objective, natural and virtual, urges to look for another approach to formalization. Each object and a set of objects possess qualitative indications, which unite objects in communities according to activity categories and developing processes.

While investigating developing processes in a social medium it is possible to define such performances as vectors of development and levels of medium complexity, character of perturbations and the reason for them. The levels of complexity refer as well to such philosophy category, as knowledge. As axioms of formalization of any categories it is more convenient to offer qualitative performances.

As to the essence of knowledge, the last knowledge is overlooked, the present can be expanded at the expense of scientific researches, the future is un known.

The research of the future, namely the future as an object is the area of fantasy. To scientific all research of the future there are various methodologies, and simulation modeling is one of them.

That is we can know more about the future and about the past, if we conduct active scientific study of knowledge. Jo see the future is necessary for the reasons of the survival of the mankind!

It is necessary to make investment for the active research of the future. Those investments in science, offered by the mankind today are very small. Jo effectively conduct the scientific research of progressive technologies of life extension, it is necessary to in vest in science not less than 30 % of the profit from any branch of activity, other wise it is impossible to get scientific innovations. The main problem is birth death and diseases there are no more important problems.

The methodology based on critical points hypothesises of human evolution makes it possible to investigate past, present and future scientifically.

For the extension of knowledge areas there are various methods and tools. On Fig.1 gives the chart snowing the limits of human knowledge. The knowledge of the past can be extended by of applying new intellectual technologies new research tools of historical finds.

The knowledge of the boundaries of the universe can be obtained by using new technical and technological achievements, as the well as knowledge field of microcosm.

The knowledge of the future can be obtained by simulation methods and information technologies of the research of time. This is the modeling of situations, perturbations and originating problems. The knowledge can also be obtained by various methods of prognosis development.

The simulation modeling today is mostly the research of objects and systems in the computers virtual medium.

The hypothesis of evolutions critical points makes it possibly to understand leaps in the development of spheres of human activity in a good or bad sense. With the modification of existence conditions, models of development and available resources the moment referred to as an evolutions critical point occurs. Depending on events of choice, the further development runs normally between critical points.

Paradigme of evolutions critical points offered as a methodology for scientific research.



Fig. 2. Shows, that the populations of organisms evolve and the are critical points of transition. The chart of development of human evolution permits to understand, that it becomes complicated and evolves in the direction of complexity and joining with information and intellectual technologies. This process has not absolutely linear in character and is connected by leaps with the moment of origin of the existence new condition, the application of new development models and the emergence of power possibilities. The hypothesis allows to understand and to investigate discontinuous evolution of development of mankind.

The choice of a path in a critical point influences the evolution up to the following critical point of development. Generalizing the research data, we offer the paradigm of the evolutions critical points. On the basis of the paths of development it is possible to work out the prognosis of development up to the following critical point. The paths of development depend on available resources, models of development scientific achievements and ideas.



 

 

The critical points arise under (A1) of such conditions as:

1. The origin of a problem and the modification of the purpose of development.

2. Natural and social cycles.

3. Ripened change of spiritual culture.

4. New scientific knowledge and technical achievements.

5. Cataclysms and social crises.

6. Limited development.

7. The exhaustion of resources or use of new energies.

8. The limits of various states and the activity of the mankind.

 

What are the ideas of the methodology of the critical points of evolution?

1. Only three paths are considered at the moment the critical points approach (Critical point [CP]) event determines the best choice (Event choice up switch [ECUS]).

2. The event determines the average choice (Event choice middle switch [ECMS]).

3. The event determines the worse choice (Event choice down switch [ECDS]).

On considering critical points of the past, the paradigm permits scientifically to evaluate the development (significance) of the past or "Retroalternativition" of social evolution (by I. Bestuzhev-Lada). The research of critical points of the present makes it possible to find timely solution in the defined directions of development. The research of the critical points of the future will enable the preparation for crisis situations softening their operation.

How to define the best choice [ECUS] in the operation of the evolutions critical point? Calculation seems simple. Let's consider the chart of the dependence of the investments in scientific research on the choice in the evolutions critical point Fig. 2a.



Fig. 2a. The dependence of the investments in scientific research (on the profit of an orb of research) on the limit of choice.

It is seen in the chart, that the limit of the choice of a critical point ECDS occurs as a result of 5 % investments in scientific research, the limit ECMS occurs as a result of 20 % investments in scientific research, the limit ECUS occurs as a result of 50-55 % investments in scientific researches.

Conclusions:

1. The methodology of the critical points of evolution is an optimal scientific methodology of the research of limits of development and knowledge.

2. To receive the best ratio of innovations in economy and other orbs of human activity depending on the investments is possible with the investments in science amounting to 30% up to 50 % of the profit in the research orbs.

The obtained conclusions will be confirmed in the following chapters, considering other limits and problems.

 

3. The critical points of the 21^st century.

Let’s consider the limits of various conditions of human activity on the A1 basis, as we can more investigate an originating problem and define a critical point of evolution.

3.1 The limit of possibilities of modern technologies and the problems of optimisation of technological structures.

Let's consider some critical points in scientific spheres of human activity (see. Fig. 3).

Bob Taylor’s idea - simultaneous dialogue in one connecting web has determined further development of the Internet global web. If it were not for the huge investments in the project, there would be no Internet. Donald’ Davis idea " of Batch transfer " granted technical possibility for such a dialogue.

If it were no such ideas, corporate and private webs and intermediate communications would (ECMS) simultaneously evolve. If the development took the ECDS direction, we would have Internet as a set of local networks connected to deleted junctions by a web similar to a fidonet.

 

 



 

 

 

 



One considering the development of computer structure (Fig.4), we can understand, that personal computers of ECMS type would develop as a web of remote terminals, and the first INTEL microprocessor would differ from the present one and machines of EC type would become strictly specialized computer.

The further computer structuring will be changed by 2020, with the appearance of the limit of technological possibilities and the increasing necessity of structural optimisation.

The prognosis. By this time the technological knowledge will exceed the importance of the humanitarian on and not only economic but also social, crisis will break out.

The intellectual technologies will undertake functions of decision making systems, and the enterprises employees will become passive elements of technological line-ups. It means crisis of the consciousness and intelligence of the majority of the planets population..



 

 

Fig.5 shows the way the problem of the limit of technologies minimization? The search for searches of an optimal ratio of size potency of the system will require intellectual effort of a great number of scientists. It wouldn’t be possible to do without artificial intelligence. The level of normal formation will require a lot of money and time, and the brain of an individual will be over, loaded with numerous technological knowledge. This is the problem of overloading the individual with large information knowledge and complicated technologies. Society will be divided into two parts: highly cultivated and technologically equipped part and uneducated and poor one. The problem will become global and can cause in the fourth world war.

 

 

3.2 The limit of inconsistency and completeness. The revolution in mathematics.

But everything is not so bad. The scientific and technical revolution can change the course of development applying new ideas in mathematics. During the evolutions critical point in 2005 paths of development of social and scientific ideas and new technologies will be explored. Besides the revolution in mathematics will happen.

Considering consider development of a postulator method, which David Gilbert set his hopes on, it was fluctuated by Kurt Godels research. In other words Godels second theorem incompleteness reveals the impossibility to prove the consistency of any formal system by means of the system it sell. Is that really so?

One cannot but consider some ideas of a postulator system having virtual groups of axioms. What is it?

If a formal system of elements has axiomatic structures, such as: binary, the set of axioms collected on the basis of relationship of binary elements is a virtual group. The virtual groups can have various axiomatic rules, according to which, it is impossible to prove, that the given formal system is contradictory and incomplete. Why? Because the given formal system owns virtual relations identical to a global formal system, which is consistent and complete (See. Fig.6).

That is, any researched formal system is a gang set of axioms of global formal system from the generator limited as it to!

The local system is complete, if it generates set of axioms identical to the global formal system. Any cases of incompleteness are overlapped by the generation of an identical set of axioms.

It means, that it is necessary to reconsider and investigate anew second K. Godels theorem!

What does it mean? The revision of all mathematical ideas. It also reveals new technologies of knowledge! *

What ideas can be investigated? Wave channels and resonances. The limited human intelligence, probably, receives knowledge from the absolute intelligence of the Space from various generations or correlation. Just this reason we geniuses and their ideas fascinate us so much. The resonance channels or pragmatic analogies can not be excluded!

* In particular, in the Laboratory of Artificial Intelligence of Center of Researches of the Future using an elementary model an artificial intelligence they investigated the possibility of deriving of knowledge from local formal system identical to a global one using pragmatic and semantic generations the "CHIP INTA" artificial intelligence received authentic knowledge of an unknown object resting upon the intellectual system generation of its own limited systems of axioms.

 





 

3.3 The limit of aggravation of an ecological situation and problem is qualitative of new ecological balance.

Let's consider a limit of aggravation of an ecological situation and problem qualitatively of new ecological balance. From what items to investigate this problem?

If to limit harmful productions, not so will be acute to stand a problem of ecological balance. If to reduce consumption of energy, the technical progress will be slowed. Scientific progress also will be slowed, the scientific researches will become unnecessary. The balance in itself will cancel a competitiveness of various orbs of production. And the population grows, the social crisis is inevitable. What to do? An output simple - to not limit production to not save an ecology, to speed up scientific researches!

What it will give? Certainly, to save a nature of the Earth and ecological cleanness already it is impossible. The scientific researches will find an output for a modification of technology and preservation of ecological balance faster.

For example: the tropical woods are destroyed on 50%. To stop a further erasure it is impossible. But the scientific researches faster will allow to find alternate materials and technologies for to direct of forces from ecological harmful productions - in ecological pure! By a 2025 the amount of tropical woods will make 20 % for want of today's rates of destruction. It means a problem of oxygen balance of atmosphere and ecological crisis.

What to do? It is necessary to reconsider ecological balance not as balance of production of harmful substances and their erasures, and as production (erasure) of harmful substances and contribution (output) of scientific researches (innovation) in a solution of the given problem. The balance should be under construction because of reasonable approach to a solution of a problem, instead of on an economic basis (See. A Fig. 7).

3.4 Crisis of seven existing forms of public consciousness (world-outlook (philosophy), science, art, moral, right, policy, faith) and necessity new paradigms.

The mankind tried on stretch of the evolution to investigate the reasons of creation of the universe. One from the suppositions of development - generation from space and internal identical analogies for consciousness - ideas of technical progress. Likeness of features religious philosophias of the divided peoples of the world directs on a uniform source of an external information or uniform geosocial source.

Crisis of religions and the heyday materialism in the beginning XX centuries has generated new directions in religious culture. In second half XX centuries and to the beginning of a 2000 the heyday of religious subcultures has reached apogee. Have appeared religious musical, video and computer cultures.

What determines a rod of culture? world-outlook. world-outlook society is determined by activity and researches. The activity closely is connected to maintenance by resources, and does not allow world-outlook to develop wider than frameworks of activity. Recently activity industrial and technological completely have delivered world-outlook in a favor of activity. This problem means crisis of development of consciousness. For example: even the harmful outputs of technologies are consciously recognized necessary.

The technological cultures become the competitors of religion. It is a lot of examples, even in the field of information technologies. For example: the grab of the market of operational systems for personal computers by firm Microsoft, has allowed to generate culture of consciousness on basis of the interface Windows. The culture has generated the values and traditions, where the convenience competes to small knowledge. That is - small gang of initial parameters and the creation on basis of such gang of culture, conducts to crisis of consciousness.

Have appeared and competing cultures - operational system Linux. It is very similar a competitiveness modern religious confessions.

The art experiences the second birth. On change to the valid art there comes culture of technological creativity from an initial gang of the forms. The simple exhaustive search of data does not give an output internal imagination and pushes it in frameworks of technology. That is, the art is done of any dagging, and becomes religion.

The moral also adheres to the certain principles of film-culture and musical culture. Active violence as the guard is considered as norm of a behavior.

The approach to the rights of the infringe is estimated as violation of the rights, instead of as violence. The institute of the right protects corporations and technologies. In policy there were by norm dirty rules and underhand struggle.

That is world-outlook, science, art, moral, right and policy become limited within the framework of existing activity and technologies.

But simultaneously these transferred kinds world-outlooks have created subcultures, which successfully compete to religions. For example: the same computer religions (Unix, C ++, J ++, MS Windows), scientific philosophy, art as small consumption of drugs, moral and right as cultural violence, policy as a means force. The medium for life of subcultures - world net Internet has appeared also.

The competitiveness religious confessions has not reduced in arrival of a uniform faith. Inconsistencies only have amplified and there were new kinds of religious terrorist organizations dangerously influencing to consciousness of mankind. This general crisis allows to make a conclusion about necessity of search of the new concept of a survival of mankind on basis of uniform culture, purposes and values (See Fig. 9).



3.5 The limits of the tendency of power growth of production and consumption. The problem of a completely new power balance.

Power production and consumption are ecologically dangerous. Investments in the search of ecologically clean technologies will damage the researches new know-how of power production!

Tit means it is much more profitable to search for new, safe technologies, than to use them for limiting the existing. Ones according to various sources, the world stock of cheap fuel is sufficient for the production of necessary power up to 2025-2030, with the increase of consumption up to 12-15 Kw a year per an inhabitant of industrially developed countries. It means, that by that time the problem of power will reach a critical point of evolution, and the world conflict over the repartition of the deposits left will be inevitable. That is, by 2020 the problem will become political and social, then economic. For the present these conflicts are local.

There is no other alternative than to reconsider the balance of power production and consumption and to invest in scientific research of ventures (See Fig.8).

Power balance should be constructed on the basis of productions and investments in to scientific research! This completely new power balance will undoubtedly remove power crisis and conflicts will create absolutely new power sources. And hydrogen power? Is most perspective.



3.6 The limits of a controllability of development of mental and physical appearances an individual as well as, human intelligence. The problem of a new paradigm of coexistence of individual and a cyborg.

The physical appearance of individual changes with the growing consumption of permitted drugs. They are medical preparations, light drugs and usual alcohol the drinks. The stereotype of work, followed by rest with drugs becomes a standard. This is the 21^st century problem. With the growth of computer technologies and communications, enjoyments come to virtually physical foreground.

This problem generates mental dependence of individual on technologies. With the increase of the significance of intellectual technologies in human life, the problem turn into mental dependence and the crisis of public consciousness forms.

The information becomes a drug. And growing influence of artificial intelligence in decision a making can cause human imbecility.

Human passivity and activity of intellectual technologies will generate a problem of coexistence of an individual and artificial intelligence, which will undergo prompt development. According to the prognosis the employment of artificial intelligence of systems in industry will reach 50% by 2020-25.

 

The released labor will in supervise and rest with drugs. An individual will degrade, and artificial intellectual systems will evolve.

The transition to virtual carriers of human consciousness will certainly happen only by 2050, but by 2020 there is a possibility of a crises caused by the use of the systems for psychotherapeutic congest of power in struggle for natural resources.

How to withdraw the evolution’s critical point of the problem? It is necessary to consider the balance of sciences and industry (See Fig. 11).

 



3.7 The limit of development or Fr. Drake’s formula for society.

How many habitable worlds do exist? Are we are alone in the Universe? These questions were asked by many outstanding ancient thinkers who answered, then with their lives!

Investigating the possible conditions of similar organic life in the Universe, Frank Drake’s an American radio astronomer, has offered the formula for calculations:

N = N* Fp Ne fl fi fc/fL,

Where N is a number of Galaxy civilizations, ready for radio contact,

N* - is a number of Galaxy stars,

Fp — a number of stars with planetary systems,

Ne — a number of planetary systems, having life,

fl — a number of biospheres with reasonable life,

fi — a number of reasonable communities with technological level of our civilization (and higher) and wishing to make contact,

fc - average life time of a technical civilization,

fL — Galaxy age.

On the basis of this idea and formula it is possible to work out the prognosis of social development transformations. This formula can be used in various spheres of human activity. It is clear that this formula does not take into account the caution of a civilization you see not all the civilizations wish to make contact.

To forecast the evolution of society it is possible to calculate all the ideas and problems and forces representing these ideas and problems. The ratio of forces and directions representing social ideas and problems will give the probable prognosis.

We offer new meanings of the elements of Fr. Drake’s formula to forecast the development of society:

N — a number of individuals, ready to construct normal society,

N* - a number of individuals in society (comparative analysis takes 10000),

Fp - a number of educated individuals,

Ne - a number of individuals with income,

fl — a number of reasonable educated individuals,

fi - a number of the reasonable individuals in scientific, administrative and legislative orbs wishing to solve of a problems and realize social ideas,

fc - average life time of social management,

fL — society age.

Using Fr. Drake’s formula for society it is possible to for out the prognosis of the approach of critical points in the developing society that is social revolutions, crises, wars, economic collapses and rises.

 

Rough estimate for Russia of 2001-2007:

N* = 10000, Fp = 0.1, Ne = 0.05, fl = 0.01, fi = 0.001, fc /fL = 0.09.

N = 0.0045 — is a very low number to place Russia in a row of developed countries of the world. The number of the USA equals 2,4! (In the process of comparison N always 10000) (See. Fig. 10).

Calculating methodologies of the technological prognosis make it also possible to take into account the frameworks of systems life time of an object, complexity of knowledge. To make an instantaneous prognosis, especially in critical situations, the calculation cannot be carried out without artificial intelligence.

It is also possible to develop the prognosis taking into account the formula together with vectors in separate areas: industrial, technological or cultural.

 



 

Conclusions:

 

The solution of the 21^st century problems is not to limit technical progress, to not preserve ecology, not to save religion, for they will hinder the mankind at the moment of the critical point’s approach to be able to pass into new conditions of existence. The economic and ecological balance should be considered taking into consideration the paradigm of the scientific contribution to the survival of the mankind.

 

Generalized conclusions:

1. Not to limit technical progress. The preservation of ecology and kinds of life will not save them.

2. The effective and correct development [ECUS] is determined by half (or — third) of the contribution of science and industry.

3. The adoption of the common life purposes and values will save human civilization from annihilation.

4. The transposition of consciousness to other carriers — is the solution of the problem of duration, the solution of the problem of knowledge and memory, the solution of the problem of life power, of the problem of philosophy and religion deeper knowledge of the world.

5. Strenuous research of cloning will define the possible limits of modifications human body and survival problem.

6. Increased investment in science up to the balanced production and consumption of power will save power resources.

8. Widespread (even military) violence while introducing subcultures and sub ideologies and creating closed, uncontrolled society will help to avoid the world war.
9. Rigid restriction of freedom is necessary for survival.
10. The philosophic doctrines of ecocentrism, biocentrism, anthropocentrism and scientism of the 21^st century will slow down the development of a civilization [ECDS]. Generalized doctrines will dominate.

On a boundary of 3^rd millenium the geopolitical map of the world has changed. sharply Such changes happen once in several centuries at end of century historical cycles - change of world civilizations (1. p. 240, 253-257). Deep bases of geopolitical shifts on a historical break are: transition from industrial society to postindustrial (Op. cit.ch.); coming into being integral socioculture order according to a prediction Pitirim Sorokin (2); the accelerated processes globalization; formation of the fourth generation of local civilizations (3. Р. 451-482). During life of one generation the world undergoes such a deep transformation, that human consciousness and scientific knowledge are not in time, behind this squall of changes.

Cyclical dynamics is observed not only in state-political and legal space of the separate countries (see 2. Ch. 6; 4), but also in the geopolitical relations. The geopolitical cycles become a component of civilization’s and Kondratieff’s cycles, which have global character. N.D. Kondratieff marked, that the periods of heightened of waves of the large cycles, as a rule, are significant large social by shocks and revolutions in life of a society (revolution, war), than periods of lowering waves (5. p. 55).

In geopolitical dynamics of ХХ century one can distinctly to see two completed and one beginning the periods (geopolitical cycles), change of which was accompanied by large global crises and shocks, change of arrangement of forces on world arena. First and appreciably second world wars have finished an antagonism for section and re-division of the world inherited from XIХ century. Of colonial empires and were finished by disintegration of these empires. In second half ХХ century on the foreground was an opposition and local conflicts between two world systems, two camps led by USA and USSR, the threat to their tragical destruction accrued, if " the cold war " has developed in thermonuclear. Since the 90-th years was (unwrapped) new re-draw the geopolitical map developed as a result of disintegration of world system of socialism, and USSR. The last had accelerated process of globalization making and claims of USA as sole stayed super-power on world hegemony. On the foreground there is an interaction and threat of clash of civilizations as an axial problem of I half XXI century.

1. The global center of war-political force moves in USA the being the recognized leader of western civilization and pretending role of the world leader, reconstructing a planet on the image, similarity and proceeding from own geopolitical interests. It is explained not only by economic and military power of super-power (at 4,6 % of the population of the world on it is got a 20,6 % world GDP, 16,1 % of the investments, 13,6 foreign trades, 33,1 % of the military charges and 40 % of the nuclear weapon - 6. p. 10), but also by the foul that Western Europe, Japan and Latin America go in a waterway of its policy, and the power of Russia as resisting super-power has left in the past - with 1,6 % world GDP, 1 % of the investments, 1,4 % of foreign trade and 1,7 % of the military charges it is impossible to rendered by essential influence on geopolitics, even spite of presence 55 % nuclear warhead, the means of the delivery besides gradually fail. In spite of fast economic growth of China, which share in world GDP has reached 10,7 %, its role in geoeconomic space is for the present insignificant - 2,4 % of world trade, 7,3 % of the military charges and 1,3 % of the nuclear weapon. The force of islamic civilization is even less. By an estimation of Samuel Huntington got in 1993 21,1 % of territories and 19,2 % of the population of the world, but only 11 % of a world gross economic product (1992) (7. Р. 84, 85, 87). The weaker positions have ancient the Indian civilization. Besides, neither China, nor India do not risk to enter a direct antagonism from USA.

So, United States as sole super-power has not the worthy rivals in geopolitical space. It provokes the American political leaders to a rate on the monopolar world, with the center in USA - about it with complete frankness has declared Zbignew Bzhezinski, who proclaimed the strategic purpose of politics of USA. As to fix an own prevailing generation, at least for the period of existence of one generation, but it is preferable for the even greater period of time (8. p. 254). As term of active life of one generation is 25-30 years, the speech goes about long-term strategy on first half of XXI century, which in itself undermines geopolitical stability.

2. The call of monopolarity has caused answer-back reaction of other civilizations, which are not ready and can not accept panamerician world. First of all it concerns civilizations of East. The process of formation of fourth, more differentiate of generation of local civilizations is observed. By the greatest activity and potential of growth differ Islamic and Chinese civilization, which precisely are guided on the multipolar world. The Indian civilization declaring the claims on own way accumulates forces. Japan is realizing feature of the interests ever more, westernization with has not overcome civilization of secularities. But also in western civilization (a monolithic) before the centrifugal tendencies, attributes of a competition between North american, West-European and Latin American civilizations are observed. Threat of clash of civilizations becomes axial problem of first half XXI century. By first it has been noted and has been formulated the clash of civilizations Samuel Huntington (7). All these factors are directed on formation multipolar of the world.

3. A Eurasian civilization became an epicentre of shifts there was a, the peak of its power for it millenium history was came on 60-70-е years ХХ century. However its economic force was undermined as a result of an opposition with West, geopolitical claims on leadership in construction of the new world and monopolistic of rotting. The sharp turn to demilitarization, westernization, capitalism of epoch of a free competition has become a major factor of disintegration of the Eurasian civilization. The struggle for section of the inheritance between western and Islamic by civilizations was unwrapped, that fact strengthens threat of clash between them. It is possible to tell, that on the Eurasian space the destiny of mankind in XXI century is decided. It well-grounded marks A.S. Panarin: "The disintegration of the Euroasian space has added to global problems of mankind, by not solving which, it can not survive, one more - a problem of wreck of the international political stability. Regardless to, whether the mankind had time, in particular, representatives of western civilization, it to realize, to general conditions of survival one more today was added: restoration of the state capable to supervise the Eurasian space and to transform it in the form of steady federation" (9. p. 319).

4. The processes civilization of shifts and contradictions occur on a background of coming into postindustrial society changing system of values and arrangement of geopolitical forces, of transition to integrated sociocultural order, accelerated process globalization. West is an advanced post of an industrial society and sensual sociocultural order, tries to prolong them for XXI century under the guise informatization of a society and at real domination in the world powerful transnational of corporations, which send from under the control of national governments and civil society and re-draw an economic and political map of the world proceeding from the interests. Self-interested and the short-sighted policy of West and expressing its interests TNK deepens to be gone between the rich and poor people and civilizations, approaches hour of global explosion, clash of civilizations. On the data of the World bank, in GNP on soul of the population in the countries with a high level of the income (926 million man) in 73,4 times is higher than the countries with the low income (2048 million man) (10. p. 239). It is the mine of long action incorporated under all world order; it can blow up the coming decade, if not the crisis of the tendencies will be achieved. It becomes especially urgent, that under the forecast UNO by 2050 the population of Europe will decrease on 14 %, of Northern America will increase by 26 %, whereas Africa grow in 2,25 times. Asia - on 43 %, Latin America on 56 %; will be observed significant grow old of the population on all continents. A population of Russia will be reduced (average variant) from 147 up to 121 million - on 17 % (11). The demographic pressure in the countries and civilizations with a low level by the income will accrue and to strengthen threat of clash of civilizations.

Thus, it is possible to make a conclusion, that from the end ХХ century are developed postindustrial civilization cycle a new superlong-term geopolitical cycle as a part. It explains both duration, and depth of shocks on geopolitical space, which will capture in total about half of century, while the new world order adequate to realities and a parity of forces postindustrial of a society will be ratified. The contours of this new world order are for the present dim, but the basic tendencies of the transitive period and main threat - opportunity of development local intercivilizational conflicts in the global conflict, threaten by self-destruction of mankind appear. The field of this probable clash - between civilizations of West and East, first of all on space of a breaking up Euroasian civilization appears also.

What are the scenarios of the geopolitical future of Russia in view of the tendencies, developing in the world?

1. The scenario of wesrernization means continuation of that frankly west oriented course, which was carried out at the end of 80^th - beginning of the 90^th years and has resulted as disintegration of Euroasian civilizations. Rather precisely this position has been expressed by V.L. Inozemtsew: "we consider that it is necessary to select orientation to cooperation with western block; determining at such choice there should be that forcircumstance, that our east neighbours represent no more than result of copying (and not always and not quite successful western model …we can not forget that all cultural, social and even religious features, Russia was and is by the European country … A USA and Western Europe have a unconditional priority in acceptance of the political decisions as the basic centers of world economic power" (12. p. 89, 90).

The consequences of realization of the scenario of westernization can be expected rather definitely. Russia, as well as other countries of CIS, turns to a zone of geopolitical interests of USA and all western block. By receiving an unexpected gift as disintegration in the past of powerful opponent, they will not calm down until they finish up to the end the tendency of transformation of Russia into the western block, weakened the satellite, down to its partition. Most frankly this position has been expressed by Zbignew Bzhezinski: "Russian political elite should understand, that for Russia a task of paramount importance is the modernization of an own society, instead of vain attempts to return the status world power… very much former decentralized, Russia would be not so susceptible to appeal to be united in empire. For Russia arranged by a principle free confederation, in which would come the European part of Russia, Siberian republic and Far East republic, would be much easier to develop close economic connections with Europe, with the new states of Central Asia and with East…" (8. p. 239-240). In this case not only Euroasian civilization, but also Russia as the uniform strong state for a long time (if not for ever) banish from historical arena, opening a way to undivided domination of USA and western block. The economic force dictates also political decisions: in quality race-horse to western chariot Russia could not carry out independent policy, and economically would turn to a source of raw material and market of selling of the ready goods for ТNК. It is clear, that such scenario can not be acceptable neither to the Russian people, nor for its elite, it is more and more definitely rejected.

However from told does not follow, that Russia can rise on a way of an opposition, with civilizations of West. USA and Western Europe go in avant guarde of modern technological revolution, which fruits are necessary for using and in Russia. Western countries have prevailing densities in export and import of Russia. Close scientific and technical and humanitarian connections with these countries are indissoluble as well. Therefore we can speak not about break which developed by centuries connections with civilizations of West, but about their more balanced development as with West, and East, with preservation of independence and originality of the Russian civilization, richest culture, without which the cultural heritage of the world is impossible.

2. Returning to bipolarity on the basis of revival of Russia as great world power, transformation of it in a centre of gravity not only for the countries of CIS, but also other countries resisting to West. Some Russian geopolitics believe, that Russia should undertake elaboration of planetary alternative to the Atlantic model of the new world order: "The elaboration of such global alternative is the main contents of the future development of Russia, basis of our global strategy, ours civilization of a strategic way … Unique way to avoid totalitarianism of West the creation is new bipolary of system of strategic balance "; the centre of the second pole should become Russia as " a geographical axis of a history ", nucleus of Eurasia (13. p. 89, 95).

At all allure of such scenario for Russia it is necessary honourly to recognize, that it is unreal, utopian, can cause the unjustified illusions and cause strategic mistakes. At least for the first quarter of XXI century, Russia can not revive former economic power, and military potential is gradually lost. And ideologically Russia can not become an ideal and sample after a failure of socialist experiment, crash of world system of socialism. There are more than chances to become the centre of restoration of the bipolar world in the second quarter XXI century has China, increasing the economic force and political influence. However this scenario is hardly real, - the Islamic, Indian, Russian civilization hardly will agree to recognize hegemony of China as centre of the second pole. Other applicants for this role in I half XXI century is not expected. It is necessary to recognize, that the model of the bipolar world has left in the past. The Russian geopolitical strategy should considered with this prospect and should not try to charge the economy, exhausted by long crisis, with burden of the new geopolitical centre of the bipolar world.

3. The scenario of multipolarity, perhaps, most real and is single possible in the long term XXI century. It can be realized on the basis of cooperation and gradually increasing partnership of local civilizations of the fourth generation. However this scenario ambiguous, complex and long. Economic and war-political force of civilizations sharply differ. By an estimation of Samuel Huntington, in 1992 the share of western civilization in a world economic product made 48,9 %, whereas islamic - 11, chinese - 10, japanese - 8, latin american - 8,3, orthodox - 6,2 and african 2,1 % (7. p. 87). On North America and the European Union is necessary accordingly 37 and 22 % of the military charges, 45 and 2 % of the nuclear weapon, whereas on the countries of CIS - 3 and 52 %, China - 7,3 and 1,3 %, India - 0,9 and 0,1 (6. p. 10,14). The headquarters ТNК basically are located in the countries of West. It is natural, that at such parity of forces there can not be an equal in rights cooperation of civilizations; and not all from them can apply for a role of the centres of the multipolar world. Most of all of bases for this purpose at north-american (centre - USA) civilization acting in the close war-political and economic block with west-european (the European Union). Japan recognizes leadership of West, but simulatiosly with understanding of own interests as centre of economic force and political influence in East Asia. China applies for an independent role which with promptly gears up and by CDP the end of the first quarter XXI century, probably, will emalize on economic force (volume ВВП) from USA, though will concede to them in the military attitude. Leaders latin-american and ocean civilizations do not apply for a role of the world and furthermore the African civilization. Other situation at the Euroasian civilization. Though she(it) considerably has lost in economic and military force, but itsposition in world economic space - on a joint of West and East, high intellectual, cultural and natural potential give the basis to keep in the long term XXI century the role as one of the centres of the multipolar world. Such position is asserted by the president of Kazakhstan N.А. Nazarbaev (14), not receiving, however, sufficient understanding and support on the part of the leaders of other countries of CIS.

• Elaboration on the basis of the long-term geopolitical forecast of the concept of geopolitical strategy (doctrine) of Russia for long prospect, proceeding from the scenario of formation of the multipolar world;
• Makingtogether with other countries of CIS of strategy of reintedration of the Euroasian civilization and increase its own role in geopolitical space, joint appearance in the international organizations, in mutual relation with other civilizations;
• The maintenance of the balanced rate in mutual relation with civilizations of West and East, expansion of economic, scientific and technical, cultural connections with the countries of East and is especial with China, upholding together with them of a rate on the multipolar world;
• More precise definition of national interests and priorities on long prospect and their consecutive upholding in mutual relation with other countries and civilizations;
• Resolute realization of a rate on partnership of the countries and civilizations in the decision of global demographic, ecological and economic problems, improvement of the legal mechanism of such partnership, including measures on strengthening the control above activity ТNК and on regulation of activity, threaten by ecological and technological accidents and catastrophes;
• More active participation in work UNO and in other international organizations, increase of their role in prevention and solution of intercivilizational conflicts.