Psychology 409, November 25, 2006
Risky Business
by your Lida Atkinson

Instructions for this activity are found at:
www.soc.hawaii.edu/leonj/leonj/leonpsy25/g25-oral1.htm 
Instructor: Dr. Leon James

 

The theory of risk homeostasis
 http://psyc.queensu.ca/target/chapter04.html

 

            Understanding how driving behavior is affected by our perception of risk assessment is the key to changing behavior. This article attempts to quantify the decision making process and illustrate misconceptions and miscalculations. The author warns that this is not a full explanation, that there are many unknown variables. Humans learn from experience which adds more variables to each new situation. The author suggests that his article should be generalized to the population rather than a single person. The model used is that of a thermometer. Risk is balanced with reward to achieve a target or optimal level on the thermometer or homeostasis.

 

  1. Determining the level of risk that is homeostasis
    1. Advantages of risky behavior – ex. gaining time by speeding
    2. Cost of risky behavior – ex. more that average gas used
    3. Benefits of safe behavior – ex. Discount on insurance
    4. Cost of safe behavior – ex. Uncomfortable seatbelt
    5. Not a fixed level but rather in a constant state of flux, just as the bodies temperature rises and lowers
  2. Acceptance of Risk
    1. Deliberately pursued

                                                              i.      in a few cases risk is pursued for a thrill

    1. Passively accepted

                                                              i.      most who use the roads passively accept the risk of injury or harm, choosing to raise or lower the risk when weighed against the expected gains or losses

  1. How risk is assessed
    2. The target level of risk is set at 0

                                                              i.      Expected losses minus expected gains

                                                            ii.      A little risk over a short period nets greater gains

                                                          iii.      The more risk taken over a longer period and the net drops below target level of risk

    1. Minimizing the risk of accidents leads to greater losses just as maximizing the risk
    2. Optimal level of risk is the point above zero that maximizes the gains and minimizes the losses
  1. Variations
    1. Long-term

                                                              i.      Cultural values

                                                            ii.      State of the economy

                                                          iii.      Status

                                                           iv.      Incentives

                                                             v.      Occupation

                                                           vi.      Education

                                                         vii.      Gender

                                                       viii.      Age

    1. Short-term

                                                              i.      Purpose of travel

                                                            ii.      Urgency

                                                          iii.      Stress

                                                           iv.      Mood

                                                             v.      Fatigue

                                                           vi.      Chemically altered states

    1. Momentary

                                                              i.      Held up in traffic – the longer the wait the greater the risk a driver is willing to take

                                                            ii.      No traffic

                                                          iii.      Weather

    1. Perceptions of risk

                                                              i.      Subjective and individualizes

                                                            ii.      Individually determined by 3 sources

1.      past experience

2.      assessment of immediate situation

3.      confidence in their decision-making and vehicle handling skills

  1. Implication of risk homeostasis
    1. When perceived accident rates are lower drivers will adopt a riskier attitude
    2. When perceived accident rates are higher drivers will adopt a safer attitude
  2. Skills that influence driver behavior
    1. Perceptual skill

                                                              i.      person's subjectively perceived risk

    1. Decision-making skill

                                                              i.      Driver’s ability to decide what to do to produce the desired outcome

    1. Vehicle-handling skills

                                                              i.      how effectively can a driver carry out decisions

  1. Effects of awareness of driver behavior
    1. It is not the level of skills themselves that effect driver behavior but the awareness of a drivers individual skills.
    2. A poorly skilled driver that is aware of his limitations will take greater precautions
    3. A highly skilled driver may overestimate their skills and be at greater risk
    4. A drivers level of skills must be consistent with their target level of risk or they will be at a greater risk of accidents
    5. Driver training is unlikely to have a lasting effect on overall driver losses because it does not effect the target level of risk

 

Conclusion:

 

            Risk homeostasis is a theory that can help predict the behavior of a population of drivers, but it does not identify the specific behaviors of individuals that cause accidents. It is a tool used to optimize risk assessment not to minimize the level of risk. The author feels that some in his field of research see this theory as pessimistic because training and safety interventions have little affect on accident rates. He points out that malleability of the target level of risk provides a opportunity for safety managers to reduce accident rates but warns us that deceptive practices would fundamentally reverse the theory of risk homeostasis.

 

Links:

 

http://ip.bmj.com/cgi/content/full/4/2/92 Risk homeostasis hypothesis: a rebuttal,

Brian O'Neill and Allan Williams. This article asserts that risk homeostasis is not a theory. It is a hypothesis that repeatedly has been refuted by empirical studies. As Evans has noted, it commands about as much credence as the flat earth hypothesis

 

http://www.gladwell.com/1996/1996_01_22_a_blowup.htm Blowup, January 22, 1996, DEPT. OF DISPUTATION Who can be blamed for a disaster like the Challenger explosion, a decade ago? No one, according to the new risk theorists, and we'd better get used to it.

 

My Homepage: http://www.soc.hawaii.edu/leon/409af2006/atkinson/atkinson-home.htm

Class Homepage: http://www.soc.hawaii.edu/leonj/leonj/leonpsy25/classhome-g25.htm