Psych 409a: October 7, 2006

The Theory of Risk Homeostasis

By: Justin Koito

Instructions for this activity are found at:

http://www.soc.hawaii.edu/leonj/leonj/leonpsy25/g25-oral3.htm

Instructor: Dr. Leon James

The Theory of Risk Homeostasis: Articles 13

Risk Homeostasis

I. Target Level of Risk

A. Definition: level of subjective accident risk at which the difference between benefits and costs is believed to be maximized

B. Determined by four categories of motivating factors

1) Expected advantages of risky behavior alternatives (i.e. speeding)

2) Expected costs of comparatively risky behavior alternatives (i.e. auto repair expenses)

3) Expected benefits of comparatively safe behavior alternatives (i.e. insurance discount for accident-free driving)

4) Expected costs of comparatively safe behavior alternatives (i.e. being called a wimp by peers)

C. People should maximize net benefit and choose a speed/actions that are suitable

D. Types Variations

a) Long-lasting: i.e. cultural values

b) Shorter-term: i.e. specific purpose of the trip

c) Momentary: i.e. happening during the trip

II. Perceived Level of Risk

A. Perceived level of risk derived by three sources

1) Person’s past experiences with traffic

2) Person’s assessment of accident potential of immediate situation

3) Degree of confidence the person has in possessing necessary decision-making and vehicle-handling skills

III. Ongoing adjustment action

A. Drivers attempt to reduce discrepancy to a level below the just-noticeable-difference (JND)

IV. Resulting Accident Toll

A. Implication of reasoning

1) any point in time where the past accident rate is lower than level of risk that people are willing to accept, riskier manner and mobility exists

2) any point in time where the past accident rate is lower than level of risk that people are willing to accept, less riskier manner and mobility exists

V. Skills that Influence Road-user Behavior

A. Three Types of Skills effecting level of risk and action done

1) perceptual skills

2) decision-making skills

3) vehicle-handling skills

B. Road user’s task: maintain a level that keeps road user’s with their target level of risk (optimal level of risk)

VI. Individual Differences in Skill

A. Each individual has a different level of risk

B. Differ in objective level of risk: amount of accident risk of the behavior of a driver while in the presence of other drivers

C. People rate themselves as good drivers so they underestimate traffic accident risk

VII. Perception of Human Beings

A. Humans are strategists and planners

B. If motivated to act safely, the human will be more safe

C. Instead of advertising greater safety, we should try to interrupt the “natural unfolding” of life

Related Links

1. Risk Homeostasis: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk_homeostasis - I chose this segment because it gives a simpler explanation of risk homeostasis. It explains how people have different levels of acceptable risk. The less risk people have, the more likely they are to engage in dangerous activities.

2. Risk homeostasis hypothesis: a rebuttal: http://ip.bmjjournals.com/cgi/content/full/4/2/92 - This article seemed interesting because it gave an opposing view to homeostasis risk. The article explained that: “Only abstract theoreticians could believe people actually behave this way, and one wonders whether some advocates of risk homeostasis have even thought about their own behavior when they get a new "safer" car.”

3. Educated Guesswork: http://www.educatedguesswork.org/movabletype/archives/2006/09/risk_homeostasi_1.html - This article discusses the homeostasis risk theory. An experiment was done and found that people were more likely to hit a person on a bicycle who was wearing a helmet. This gave evidence that to the theory when situations appear safer, people tend to engage in riskier behavior.

My Home page:

http://www.soc.hawaii.edu/leon/409af2006/koito/koito-home.htm

Class Home Page:

http://www.soc.hawaii.edu/leonj/leonj/leonpsy25/classhome-g25.htm