Psychology 409a – February 27, 2006
Theory of Risk Homeostasis
By Aaron Reich
Wilde, Gerald J.S. Target Risk 2: A new psychology of safety
and health. Toronto, Canada: PDE Publishings, 1994.
(Chapter 4)
Instructions for this activity are found at:
www.soc.hawaii.edu/leonj/leonj/leonpsy24/g24-oral1.htm
Instructor: Dr. Leon James
Chapter 4: The Theory of Risk Homeostasis
1) Target Level of Risk
- A variety of factors determines the level of accident risk that a given person is willing to take in any given situation. Different people take different risks, and the same people take different risks at different times. The term “target” is synonymous with preferred, desired, and subjectively optimal.
- The target level of risk is determined by four categories:
1. The expected advantages of comparatively risky behavior alternatives: for instance, gaining time by speeding, making a risky maneuver to fight boredom.
2. The expected costs of comparatively risky behavior alternatives: for instance, automobile repair expenses, insurance surcharges for being at fault in an accident.
3. The expected benefits of comparatively safe behavior alternatives: for instance, an insurance discount for accident-free driving.
4. The expected costs of comparatively safe behavior alternatives: for instance, using an uncomfortable seatbelt, being called a wimp by one's peers
- Depending on the person and the situation, all of these factors will be weighed out to determine what level of risk should be taken. This process happens on a sub-conscious level countless times while people are driving. People are constantly taking risks on varying levels. This theory of target level of risk helps to break down the cognitive process of risk taking. Behavior becomes more risky when the values of categories 1 and 4 increase, and the behavior becomes more safe and less risky when the values of categories 2 and 3 increase.
2) Perceived Level of Risk
- The perceived level of risk in any given situation is determined by three factors: a person’s past experience with traffic, the person’s assessment of the accident potential of the immediate situation, and the degree of confidence a person has in his or her vehicle-handling and decision-making skills.
- A person’s past experience with traffic derives from a number of earlier events, including past accidents, observing others in accidents, and conversations with others about accidents. These experiences give the person a general impression of the riskiness of driving.
- People read the risk factors of things such as their own speed, the speed of other drivers, and weather conditions to determine the level of risk of the immediate situation.
- People with more confidence naturally perceive less risk than people who doubt their own abilities.
3) Related Links
1. Manage Your Driving Risks - This link is to a blurb that provides tips for soldiers in the Army to manage the risks they are taking on the road. I thought this was interesting that the Army provides instructions to soldiers, who are involved in life-threatening situations as a job, tips to avoid dangerous situations on the highways, especially during the holidays.
2. Risks in Driving - This link contains general tips for safe driving and lists the various risks that potentially affect all drivers, including speed, lights, fatigue, drugs, and wearing seatbelts. It has a very extensive list of risk factors and practical advice for safe driving.
3. Tips to Reduce Driving Risks - This is a link to a news article that is very brief but is full of good tips for reducing risks on the road. Some of the tips are specific to winter driving; however, there are more universal tips that when applied can seriously improve the safety of one’s driving.