Research into the interlinks between biodiversity patterns, processes, threats, conservation and human welfare



The Year of Climate Departure for World Cities

Image shows multi-model averages under RCP8.5 (Mora et al. 2013). Raw data for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 can be downloaded HERE. Below we also provide a list of cities by their timing of climate departure. The values shown in the table are the multi-model average projected year of climate departure using two emmisions scenarios: in one scenario, RCP4.5, we implement a concerted mitigation effort of emmisions in which CO2 estabilizes at 538 ppm by 2100; in the other, RCP8.5, we continue our bussiness-as-usual and CO2 reaches over 936 ppm by 2100.






COUNTRYCITYRCP8.5RCP4.5
AfghanistanKabul20452071
AlbaniaTirana20462070
AlgeriaAlgiers20412063
AndorraAndorra la Vella20442070
AngolaLuanda20352052
Antigua and BarbudaSt. John's20332047
ArgentinaBuenos Aires20662094
ArmeniaYerevan20452076
AustraliaPerth20422072
AustraliaCanberra20452072
AustraliaSydney20382052
AustraliaMelbourne20452073
AustraliaBrisbane20422070
AustraliaDarwin20422065
AustraliaAdelaide20492080
AustriaVienna20552084
AzerbaijanBaku20472072
BahamasNassau20292041
BahrainManama20322054
BangladeshDhaka20542082
BarbadosBridgetown20342046
BelarusMinsk20652091
BelgiumBrussels20562086
BelizeBelmopan20342048
BeninPorto-Novo20292043
BhutanThimphu20352052
BoliviaLa Paz20282037
Bosnia and HerzegovinaSarajevo20512079
BotswanaGaborone20502083
BrazilRio de Janeiro20502079
BrazilSao Paulo20512083
BrazilBrasilia20472072
BruneiBandar Seri Begawan20272035
BulgariaSofia20512082
Burkina FasoOuagadougou20362053
BurundiBujumbura20352049
CambodiaPhnom Penh20432068
CameroonYaounde20252032
CanadaOttawa20472072
CanadaToronto20492074
CanadaMontreal20462072
CanadaVancouver20562083
Cape VerdePraia20422066
Central African RepublicBangui20282036
ChadN'Djamena20452075
ChileSantiago20432071
ChinaBeijing20462078
ChinaShanghai20452070
ChinaTianjin20502080
ChinaGuangzhou20462072
ChinaShenzhen20432065
ChinaDongguan20442071
ChinaHong Kong20432065
ChinaWuhan20452070
ChinaChongqing20462075
ChinaShenyang20482080
ColombiaBogota20332047
ComorosMoroni20312048
Costa RicaSan Jose20372058
Cote d'IvoireAbidjan20262034
Cote d'IvoireAbidjan20262034
CroatiaZagreb20532085
CubaHavana20312045
CyprusNicosia20392059
Czech RepublicPrague20562085
DenmarkCopenhagen20602089
DjiboutiDjibouti20342048
DominicaRoseau20342048
Dominican RepublicSanto Domingo20262033
DR CongoKinshasa20282038
EcuadorQuito20342050
EgyptCairo20362057
EgyptAlexandria20362054
El SalvadorSan Salvador20332049
Equatorial GuineaMalabo20242030
EritreaAsmara20352053
EstoniaTallinn20652091
EthiopiaAddis Ababa20362054
FijiSuva20382065
FinlandHelsinki20632091
FranceParis20542084
GabonLibreville20242028
GeorgiaTbilisi20462077
GermanyBerlin20612090
GhanaAccra20272034
GreeceAthens20412064
GrenadaSt. George's20322042
GuatemalaGuatemala City20382054
GuineaConakry20272036
Guinea-BissauBissau20322045
GuyanaGeorgetown20292039
HaitiPort-au-Prince20252030
HondurasTegucigalpa20402055
HungaryBudapest20562085
IcelandReykjavik20662084
IndiaMumbai20342051
IndiaBangalore20462069
IndiaHyderabad20572085
IndiaAhmedabad20462075
IndiaChennai20342052
IndiaKolkata20532081
IndiaSurat20452066
IndiaPune20372055
IndiaJaipur20452074
IndiaNew Delhi20502081
IndonesiaJakarta20292042
IndonesiaManokwari20202025
IranTehran20452068
IraqBaghdad20362055
IrelandDublin20592083
IsraelJerusalem20382061
ItalyRome20442067
ItalyMilan20482073
ItalyNaples20442065
JamaicaKingston20232028
JapanTokyo20412067
JapanYokohama20412067
JapanKyoto20402065
JordanAmman20402063
KazakhstanAstana20582091
KazakhstanAlmaty20472075
KenyaNairobi20362058
KiribatiTarawa20492074
KuwaitKuwait City20362054
KyrgyzstanBishkek20482077
LaosVientiane20562085
LatviaRiga20642091
LebanonBeirut20402063
LesothoMaseru20382057
LiberiaMonrovia20252032
LibyaTripoli20382059
LiechtensteinVaduz20512076
LithuaniaVilnius20672091
LuxembourgLuxembourg City20562083
MacedoniaSkopje20492080
MadagascarAntananarivo20322047
MalawiLilongwe20362053
MalaysiaKuala Lumpur20292039
MaldivesMale20252027
MaliBamako20342051
MaltaValletta20382054
Marshall IslandsMajuro20272036
MauritaniaNouakchott20402069
MauritiusPort Louis20372059
MexicoMexico City20312050
MicronesiaPalikir20242031
MoldovaChisinau20582092
MonacoMonaco20442066
MongoliaUlan Bator20542087
MontenegroPodgorica20482075
MoroccoCasablanca20482080
MoroccoRabat20462076
MozambiqueMaputo20382060
MyanmarYangon20362055
MyanmarMandalay20452072
MyanmarYangon20362055
MyanmarNaypyidaw20412069
NamibiaWindhoek20442067
NepalKathmandu20412063
NetherlandsAmsterdam20582086
New ZealandWellington20412070
NicaraguaManagua20372052
NigerNiamey20392060
NigeriaLagos20292043
NigeriaAbuja20342047
North KoreaPyongyang20422068
NorwayOslo20612088
OmanMuscat20322049
PakistanKarachi20352055
PakistanLahore20492073
PakistanIslamabad20422064
PalauNgerulmud20232025
PanamaPanama City20312045
Papua New GuineaPort Moresby20332043
ParaguayAsuncion20592086
PeruLima20382057
PeruLima20382057
PhilippinesManila20382055
PolandWarsaw20632090
PortugalLisbon20522084
QatarDoha20332052
Republic of the CongoBrazzaville20282038
RomaniaBucharest20542085
RussiaMoscow20632092
RussiaSaint Petersburg20642093
RwandaKigali20312042
Saint Kitts and NevisBasseterre20332047
Saint LuciaCastries20342047
Saint Vincent and the GrenadinesKingstown20332046
SamoaApia20282039
San MarinoSan Marino20472072
Sao Tome and PrincipeSao Tome20252028
Saudi ArabiaRiyadh20322050
Saudi ArabiaJeddah20342050
SenegalDakar20442073
SerbiaBelgrade20542081
SeychellesVictoria20272039
Sierra LeoneFreetown20282037
SingaporeSingapore20282037
SlovakiaBratislava20552082
SloveniaLjubljana20512075
Solomon IslandsHoniara20242026
SomaliaMogadishu20302040
South AfricaPretoria20432068
South AfricaJohannesburg20432068
South AfricaCape Town20382060
South AfricaDurban20352053
South AfricaBloemfontein20432067
South KoreaSeoul20422067
South KoreaBusan20442068
South SudanJuba20412056
SpainMadrid20462076
SpainBarcelona20432065
Sri LankaColombo20292037
SudanKhartoum20382062
SurinameParamaribo20282040
SwazilandMbabane20412067
SwedenStockholm20602089
SwitzerlandBern20502080
SwitzerlandZurich20502077
SwitzerlandGeneva20482076
SyriaDamascus20412068
TaiwanTaipei20422066
TajikistanDushanbe20452071
TanzaniaDodoma20402063
TanzaniaDar es Salaam20342053
ThailandBangkok20462070
The GambiaBanjul20372062
Timor-LesteDili20302040
TogoLome20312046
TongaNukualofa20432075
Trinidad and TobagoPort of Spain20322044
TunisiaTunis20382060
TurkeyIstanbul20462075
TurkeyAnkara20472080
TurkmenistanAshgabat20462072
TuvaluFunafuti20292040
UgandaKampala20472064
UKLondon20562088
UkraineKiev20632090
United Arab EmiratesAbu Dhabi20332047
UruguayMontevideo20562084
USAOrlando20462074
USANew York City20472072
USAWashington DC20472071
USASan Francisco20492074
USAAnchorage20712095
USAHonolulu20432067
USALos Angeles20482079
USAChicago20522081
USAHouston20502081
USAPhiladelphia20472072
USAPhoenix20432073
USASan Diego20462075
USADallas20632093
USAAustin20582090
USADetroit20512076
USASeattle20552082
USADenver20482079
UzbekistanTashkent20462072
VanuatuPort Vila20382065
VenezuelaCaracas20342052
VietnamHo Chi Minh City20392062
VietnamHanoi20552085
YemenSanaa20392060
ZambiaLusaka20412067
ZimbabweHarare20442070